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Bolívar vs Monagas II — Segunda División 2018

Bolívar
Bolívar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Monagas II
Monagas II
7/24/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 17Estadio Decanato UDO Bolívar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Bolívar49%
×Draw26%
Monagas II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
1.54
Monagas II
1.02

Bolívar creates 51% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 21 away

creates per match

Bolívar
1.38
Monagas II
1.14

allows per match

Bolívar
0.91
Monagas II
1.71

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Monagas II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Monagas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
75%
Bolívar or Monagas II
74%
Draw or Monagas II
51%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
25%
Monagas II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
79%
Bolívar 2+ goals
45%
Bolívar 3+ goals
20%
Monagas II 1+ goals
64%
Monagas II 2+ goals
27%
Monagas II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
66%
Monagas II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 56 matches

Monagas II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 1.38 + Monagas II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Monagas II attack 1.14 + Bolívar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bolívar scores more
49%
level
26%
Monagas II scores more
25%

Bolívar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Bolívar 1–1 Monagas II

Bolívar and Monagas II drew 1-1 in Segunda División on July 24, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Decanato UDO Bolívar in Bolívar.