Monaco vs Metz — Ligue 1 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 21+ matches
Monaco60%
Metz18%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Monaco creates 101% more chances
Season form · 28 home / 21 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Monaco ↓
Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Monaco at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.23 · 28 matches
Metz away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Monaco attack 1.74 + Metz defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.99
Metz attack 0.76 + Monaco defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 60%?"
Monaco at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 60% does not mean "Monaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Paris Saint Germain
Lens
Lille
Lyon
Marseille
RennesMonaco
Strasbourg
Lorient
Toulouse
Paris FC
Stade Brestois 29
Angers
Nice
Le Havre
Auxerre
NantesMetz
Rodez
Saint Etienne
RED Star FC 93If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Monaco host Metz on Sunday, 5 December 2021 at 14:00. The match is part of the Ligue 1 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Monaco vs Metz
Monaco beat Metz 4-0 in Ligue 1 on December 5, 2021.
Goals: S. Diop (2'), K. Volland (44' pen), Gelson Martins (57'), W. Ben Yedder (87').
Monaco controlled possession (65%) and registered 8 shots to 6.
The match was played at Stade Louis II in Monaco.