Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Monaco vs Metz — Coupe de France 2018

Monaco
Monacoadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metz
Metz
S. Jovetić 120+10' (pen)
Fàbregas 120+8' (pen)
D. Sidibé 120+6' (pen)
K. Volland 120+4' (pen)
W. Ben Yedder 120+2' (pen)
D. Bronn 120+9' (pen)
T. Ambrose 120+5' (pen)
P. Yade 120+3' (pen)
P. Sarr 120+1' (pen)
4/6/2021Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 16Stade Louis II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Monaco22%
×Draw23%
Metz55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monaco
1.04
Metz
1.80

Metz creates 73% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Monaco
1.00
Metz
2.21

allows per match

Monaco
1.40
Metz
1.07

finishing

Monaco+0.00on par
Metz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monaco ↓

Metz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Monaco or draw
45%
Monaco or Metz
77%
Draw or Metz
78%

Winning margin

Monaco wins by 2+
8%
Metz wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Monaco 1+ goals
65%
Monaco 2+ goals
28%
Monaco 3+ goals
9%
Metz 1+ goals
83%
Metz 2+ goals
54%
Metz 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Monaco (draw refunded)
28%
Metz (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monaco at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Metz away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monaco attack 1.00 + Metz defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Metz attack 2.21 + Monaco defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Monaco scores more
22%
level
23%
Metz scores more
55%

Metz at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. OukidjaMetzMetz · G
8.2

Match Events

46'
A. Disasi← B. Badiashile
59'
Fàbregas← Gelson Martins
60'
T. Ambrose← A. Leya
60'
P. Sarr← F. Boulaya
61'
P. Yade← Vágner
65'
Victorien Angban
68'
S. Jovetić← K. Diatta
68'
Caio Henrique← F. Ballo
79'
A. Tchouaméni← E. Matazo
120+1'
P. SarrPenalty
120+2'
W. Ben YedderPenalty
120+3'
P. YadePenalty
120+4'
K. VollandPenalty
120+5'
T. AmbrosePenalty
120+6'
D. SidibéPenalty
120+7'
H. MaïgaMissed penalty
120+8'
FàbregasPenalty
120+9'
D. BronnPenalty
120+10'
S. JovetićPenalty

Possession

56%Monaco

Shots

17Monaco

Pass accuracy

52%Monaco

Statistics

MonacoMetz
Overview
56%Possession44%
17Total Shots8
10Corners5
10Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots8
6On Target3
4Off Target3
7Blocked2
15Inside Box4
2Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
600Total Passes453
511Accurate Passes351
85%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Coupe de France: Monaco 0–0 Metz

Monaco and Metz drew 0-0 in Coupe de France on April 6, 2021.

Goals: P. Sarr (120+1' pen), W. Ben Yedder (120+2' pen), P. Yade (120+3' pen), K. Volland (120+4' pen), T. Ambrose (120+5' pen), D. Sidibé (120+6' pen), Fàbregas (120+8' pen), D. Bronn (120+9' pen), S. Jovetić (120+10' pen).

Monaco controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade Louis II in Monaco.