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Mombasa Elite vs Mara Sugar — Super League 2018

Mombasa Elite
Mombasa Elite
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
3/16/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Serani Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Mombasa Elite39%
×Draw28%
Mara Sugar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mombasa Elite
1.25
Mara Sugar
1.13

Mombasa Elite creates 11% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 52 away

creates per match

Mombasa Elite
1.36
Mara Sugar
1.31

allows per match

Mombasa Elite
0.94
Mara Sugar
1.15

finishing

Mombasa Elite+0.00on par
Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mombasa Elite ↓

Mara Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mombasa Elite or draw
67%
Mombasa Elite or Mara Sugar
72%
Draw or Mara Sugar
61%

Winning margin

Mombasa Elite wins by 2+
17%
Mara Sugar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mombasa Elite 1+ goals
71%
Mombasa Elite 2+ goals
36%
Mombasa Elite 3+ goals
13%
Mara Sugar 1+ goals
68%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
31%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)
54%
Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mombasa Elite at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.94 · 90 matches

Mara Sugar away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mombasa Elite attack 1.36 + Mara Sugar defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mara Sugar attack 1.31 + Mombasa Elite defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mombasa Elite scores more
39%
level
28%
Mara Sugar scores more
33%

Mombasa Elite at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mombasa Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mombasa Elite vs Mara Sugar

Mara Sugar beat Mombasa Elite 2-0 in Super League on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Serani Sports Ground in Mombasa.