Mara Sugar 3–2 Mombasa Elite: Result & Stats

Mara Sugar

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Mombasa Elite

11/11/2023

Super League · Round 9Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Mara Sugar60%

×Draw23%

Mombasa Elite17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mara SugarExpected goals in this matchMombasa Elite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.80

Mara Sugar

1.77

Mombasa Elite

0.80

Mara Sugar creates 121% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 91 away

1.91

creates per match

0.78

0.81

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Mara Sugar

1.91

Mombasa Elite

0.78

allows per match

Mara Sugar

0.81

Mombasa Elite

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Mombasa Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mara Sugar ↓

Mombasa Elite →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mara Sugar or draw

83%

Mara Sugar or Mombasa Elite

77%

Draw or Mombasa Elite

40%

Winning margin

Mara Sugar wins by 2+

35%

Mombasa Elite wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mara Sugar 1+ goals

83%

Mara Sugar 2+ goals

53%

Mara Sugar 3+ goals

26%

Mombasa Elite 1+ goals

55%

Mombasa Elite 2+ goals

19%

Mombasa Elite 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mara Sugar (draw refunded)

78%

Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mara Sugar at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.81 · 54 matches

Mombasa Elite away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mara Sugar attack 1.91 + Mombasa Elite defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.77

Mombasa Elite attack 0.78 + Mara Sugar defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mara Sugar scores more

60%

level

23%

Mombasa Elite scores more

17%

Mara Sugar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mara Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff