Mombasa Elite 1–2 Kibera Black Stars

Mombasa Elite

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Kibera Black Stars

6/1/2024

Super League · Round 34Serani Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Mombasa Elite46%

×Draw28%

Kibera Black Stars26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mombasa EliteExpected goals in this matchKibera Black Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.94

Mombasa Elite

1.33

Kibera Black Stars

0.94

Mombasa Elite creates 41% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 110 away

1.36

creates per match

0.95

0.94

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Mombasa Elite

1.36

Kibera Black Stars

0.95

allows per match

Mombasa Elite

0.94

Kibera Black Stars

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mombasa Elite+0.00on par

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mombasa Elite ↓

Kibera Black Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mombasa Elite or draw

74%

Mombasa Elite or Kibera Black Stars

72%

Draw or Kibera Black Stars

54%

Winning margin

Mombasa Elite wins by 2+

21%

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mombasa Elite 1+ goals

74%

Mombasa Elite 2+ goals

38%

Mombasa Elite 3+ goals

15%

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals

61%

Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals

24%

Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)

63%

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mombasa Elite at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.94 · 90 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mombasa Elite attack 1.36 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.95 + Mombasa Elite defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mombasa Elite scores more

46%

level

28%

Kibera Black Stars scores more

26%

Mombasa Elite at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mombasa Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff