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Kibera Black Stars vs Mombasa Elite — Super League 2018

Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mombasa Elite
Mombasa Elite
10/20/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Mpesa Foundation Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Kibera Black Stars54%
×Draw26%
Mombasa Elite20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kibera Black Stars
1.48
Mombasa Elite
0.77

Kibera Black Stars creates 92% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 91 away

creates per match

Kibera Black Stars
1.33
Mombasa Elite
0.78

allows per match

Kibera Black Stars
0.75
Mombasa Elite
1.62

finishing

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par
Mombasa Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kibera Black Stars ↓

Mombasa Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kibera Black Stars or draw
80%
Kibera Black Stars or Mombasa Elite
74%
Draw or Mombasa Elite
46%

Winning margin

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
28%
Mombasa Elite wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
77%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
43%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
19%
Mombasa Elite 1+ goals
54%
Mombasa Elite 2+ goals
18%
Mombasa Elite 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
73%
Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kibera Black Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

Mombasa Elite away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kibera Black Stars attack 1.33 + Mombasa Elite defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mombasa Elite attack 0.78 + Kibera Black Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kibera Black Stars scores more
54%
level
26%
Mombasa Elite scores more
20%

Kibera Black Stars at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kibera Black Stars vs Mombasa Elite

Kibera Black Stars beat Mombasa Elite 1-0 in Super League on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Mpesa Foundation Academy in Thika.