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Molynes United vs Lime Hall Academy — Premier League 2019

Molynes United
Molynes United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lime Hall Academy
Lime Hall Academy
12/3/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Drax Hall Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Molynes United57%
×Draw22%
Lime Hall Academy21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molynes United
2.00
Lime Hall Academy
1.13

Molynes United creates 77% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 13 away

creates per match

Molynes United
1.16
Lime Hall Academy
0.38

allows per match

Molynes United
1.88
Lime Hall Academy
2.85

finishing

Molynes United+0.00on par
Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molynes United ↓

Lime Hall Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Molynes United or draw
79%
Molynes United or Lime Hall Academy
78%
Draw or Lime Hall Academy
43%

Winning margin

Molynes United wins by 2+
34%
Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Molynes United 1+ goals
86%
Molynes United 2+ goals
59%
Molynes United 3+ goals
32%
Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals
68%
Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals
31%
Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Molynes United (draw refunded)
73%
Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molynes United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.88 · 94 matches

Lime Hall Academy away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molynes United attack 1.16 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.00

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.38 + Molynes United defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Molynes United scores more
57%
level
22%
Lime Hall Academy scores more
21%

Molynes United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Molynes United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Molynes United vs Lime Hall Academy

Molynes United and Lime Hall Academy drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Drax Hall Sports Complex in Saint Ann's Bay.