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Lime Hall Academy vs Molynes United — Premier League 2019

Lime Hall Academy
Lime Hall Academy
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Molynes United
Molynes United
3/3/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Drewsland Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lime Hall Academy25%
×Draw24%
Molynes United51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lime Hall Academy
1.15
Molynes United
1.75

Molynes United creates 52% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 97 away

creates per match

Lime Hall Academy
0.69
Molynes United
1.05

allows per match

Lime Hall Academy
2.46
Molynes United
1.60

finishing

Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par
Molynes United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lime Hall Academy ↓

Molynes United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lime Hall Academy or draw
49%
Lime Hall Academy or Molynes United
76%
Draw or Molynes United
75%

Winning margin

Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+
10%
Molynes United wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals
68%
Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals
32%
Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals
11%
Molynes United 1+ goals
83%
Molynes United 2+ goals
52%
Molynes United 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)
33%
Molynes United (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lime Hall Academy at home — creates 0.69, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Molynes United away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.60 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.69 + Molynes United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.15

Molynes United attack 1.05 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lime Hall Academy scores more
25%
level
24%
Molynes United scores more
51%

Molynes United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Molynes United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Lime Hall Academy 1–2 Molynes United

Molynes United beat Lime Hall Academy 2-1 in Premier League on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Drewsland Stadium in Kingston.