Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 0–4 Khimik Svetlogorsk

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Khimik Svetlogorsk

A. Arkhiptsev 79'

G. Abdullaev 65'

E. Imeryakov 23' (OG)

D. Yakhno 16'

12/5/2020

1. Division · Relegation Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 457%

×Draw22%

Khimik Svetlogorsk20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Expected goals in this matchKhimik Svetlogorsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.03

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.89

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.03

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 59 away

1.75

creates per match

0.92

1.15

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.75

Khimik Svetlogorsk

0.92

allows per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.15

Khimik Svetlogorsk

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 ↓

Khimik Svetlogorsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or draw

80%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or Khimik Svetlogorsk

78%

Draw or Khimik Svetlogorsk

43%

Winning margin

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

33%

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

85%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

56%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

29%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals

64%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals

28%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

74%

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.02 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.75 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.89

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 0.92 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

57%

level

22%

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more

20%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

D. Yakhno

17'

23'

E. ImeryakovOwn goal

30'

G. Abdullaev

37'

V. Kovalevich

46'

I. Talkovskiy← V. Fedotov

46'

P. Golubovich← S. Drozd

52'

S. Galyuk

59'

A. Grib← S. Galyuk

59'

M. Chabritskiy← S. Tarchilo

65'

G. Abdullaev

68'

69'

D. Seregin← N. Metlitskiy

77'

A. Kobesov← M. Dashuk

79'

A. Arkhiptsev

80'

K. Malitskiy← A. Arkhiptsev

82'

N. Galuza← D. Yakhno

Molodechno-DYuSSh

Khimik

Vysotskiy

Kolybenko

Vorontsov

⚽

▼

Arkhiptse

▼

Dashuk

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

Manager: S. Dorokhovich

46'▲I. Talkovskiy←▼V. Fedotov

46'▲P. Golubovich←▼S. Drozd

59'▲A. Grib←▼S. Galyuk

59'▲M. Chabritskiy←▼S. Tarchilo

69'▲D. Seregin←▼N. Metlitskiy

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 substitutes

TalkovskiyGolubovichGribChabritskiySereginSyrokvashGaydukevich

Manager: O. Cherepnev

77'▲A. Kobesov←▼M. Dashuk

80'▲K. Malitskiy←▼A. Arkhiptsev

82'▲N. Galuza←▼D. Yakhno

Khimik Svetlogorsk substitutes

KobesovMalitskiyGaluzaLabadzeMakarov

1. Division: Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 0–4 Khimik Svetlogorsk

Khimik Svetlogorsk beat Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 4-0 in 1. Division on December 5, 2020.

Goals: D. Yakhno (16'), E. Imeryakov (23' o.g.), G. Abdullaev (65'), A. Arkhiptsev (79').

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 vs Khimik Svetlogorsk — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 0–4 Khimik Svetlogorsk