Khimik Svetlogorsk 0–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Khimik Svetlogorsk

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

11/28/2020

1. Division · Relegation RoundStadyen Chimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk40%

×Draw25%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 435%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimik SvetlogorskExpected goals in this matchMolodechno-DYuSSh 4

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.33

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.44

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 54 away

1.00

creates per match

1.31

1.34

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.00

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.31

allows per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.34

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Svetlogorsk ↓

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Khimik Svetlogorsk or draw

65%

Khimik Svetlogorsk or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

75%

Draw or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

60%

Winning margin

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+

19%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals

76%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals

42%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals

18%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

74%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

38%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)

53%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Svetlogorsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 56 matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.87 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 1.00 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.44

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.31 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more

40%

level

25%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

35%

Khimik Svetlogorsk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Khimik Svetlogorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

N. Galuza← P. Trofimchuk

67'

P. Golubovich← N. Metlitskiy

72'

M. Chabritskiy← S. Drozd

81'

K. Malitskiy← A. Arkhiptsev

86'

A. Kobesov← K. Malitskiy

89'

A. Bazylyuk← S. Tarchilo

Khimik

Molodechno-DYuSSh

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: O. Cherepnev

63'▲N. Galuza←▼P. Trofimchuk

81'▲K. Malitskiy←▼A. Arkhiptsev

86'▲A. Kobesov←▼K. Malitskiy

Khimik Svetlogorsk substitutes

GaluzaMalitskiyKobesovLabadze

Manager: S. Dorokhovich

67'▲P. Golubovich←▼N. Metlitskiy

72'▲M. Chabritskiy←▼S. Drozd

89'▲A. Bazylyuk←▼S. Tarchilo

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 substitutes

GolubovichChabritskiyBazylyukSereginGuletskiySyrokvashGaydukevich

Match Recap: Khimik Svetlogorsk vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Khimik Svetlogorsk and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 drew 0-0 in 1. Division on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Stadyen Chimik in Svietlahorsk.

Khimik Svetlogorsk vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Khimik Svetlogorsk vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4