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Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 vs FC Slutsk — Premier League 2018

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Slutsk
FC Slutsk
I. Grishchenko 37'
5/25/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Molodechno Haradzki Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 431%
×Draw28%
FC Slutsk41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.07
FC Slutsk
1.29

FC Slutsk creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 110 away

creates per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.53
FC Slutsk
0.85

allows per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.73
FC Slutsk
1.61

finishing

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par
FC Slutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 ↓

FC Slutsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or draw
59%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or FC Slutsk
72%
Draw or FC Slutsk
69%

Winning margin

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+
12%
FC Slutsk wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals
66%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals
29%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals
9%
FC Slutsk 1+ goals
72%
FC Slutsk 2+ goals
37%
FC Slutsk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)
43%
FC Slutsk (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

FC Slutsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.61 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 0.53 + FC Slutsk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.07

FC Slutsk attack 0.85 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more
31%
level
28%
FC Slutsk scores more
41%

FC Slutsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Slutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
Arthur Bougnone
25'
Sergey Usenya
32'
Andrey Rum
36'
V. Kurlovich← A. Rum
37'
I. Grishchenko
46'
M. Dubatovka← F. Lebedev
61'
E. Azerskiy← D. Vashkevich
61'
M. Budko← I. Monich
63'
M. Zhumabekov← A. Bougnone
70'
A. Vlasov← P. Tseslyukevich
82'
M. Dukso← M. Samotoy
82'
M. Tychko← D. Lesnyak
87'
A. Bakaev← A. Kren
87'
I. Tishurov← I. Grishchenko

Statistics

Molodechno-DYuSShFC
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 vs FC Slutsk

FC Slutsk beat Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1-0 in Premier League on May 25, 2025.

Goals: I. Grishchenko (37').

The match was played at Molodechno Haradzki Stadion in Molodechno.