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FC Slutsk vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 — Premier League 2018

FC Slutsk
FC Slutsk
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
I. Grishchenko 90' (pen)
A. Anufriev 69'
A. Butko 79'
A. Tolkin 18' (OG)
10/19/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FC Slutsk54%
×Draw23%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 423%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Slutsk
1.79
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.07

FC Slutsk creates 67% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 15 away

creates per match

FC Slutsk
1.11
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.73

allows per match

FC Slutsk
1.42
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.47

finishing

FC Slutsk+0.00on par
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Slutsk ↓

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Slutsk or draw
77%
FC Slutsk or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
77%
Draw or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
46%

Winning margin

FC Slutsk wins by 2+
30%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Slutsk 1+ goals
83%
FC Slutsk 2+ goals
53%
FC Slutsk 3+ goals
26%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals
66%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals
29%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Slutsk (draw refunded)
71%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Slutsk at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 105 matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Slutsk attack 1.11 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.79

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 0.73 + FC Slutsk defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Slutsk scores more
54%
level
23%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more
23%

FC Slutsk at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Slutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
A. TolkinOwn goal
60'
A. Sokolovskiy← N. Dragutinovic
61'
G. Kutkovich← E. Imeryakov
62'
Andrey Kren
69'
A. Anufriev↳ A. Sokolovskiy
77'
A. Voronovich← A. Vlasov
77'
N. Shelest← J. Assumu
79'
A. Rum← A. Kren
79'
A. Butko↳ A. Radzhabov
87'
Nikita Shelest
87'
V. Kulchitskiy← A. Anufriev
87'
N. Khrisanfov← V. Kurlovich
87'
V. Chernyavskiy← A. Semenov
88'
N. Lysenko← A. Djukic
90'
I. GrishchenkoPenalty

Statistics

FCMolodechno-DYuSSh
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: FC Slutsk vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

FC Slutsk and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 drew 2-2 in Premier League on October 19, 2025.

Goals: A. Tolkin (18' o.g.), A. Anufriev (69'), A. Butko (79'), I. Grishchenko (90' pen).

The match was played at Stadyen Haradski in Slutsk.