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Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 vs FC Gomel — Premier League 2018

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Gomel
FC Gomel
V. Yatskevich 42'
5/10/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Molodechno Haradzki Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 422%
×Draw27%
FC Gomel51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.86
FC Gomel
1.46

FC Gomel creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 98 away

creates per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.53
FC Gomel
1.20

allows per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.73
FC Gomel
1.20

finishing

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par
FC Gomel+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 ↓

FC Gomel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or draw
49%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or FC Gomel
73%
Draw or FC Gomel
78%

Winning margin

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+
7%
FC Gomel wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals
58%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals
21%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals
6%
FC Gomel 1+ goals
77%
FC Gomel 2+ goals
43%
FC Gomel 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)
30%
FC Gomel (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

FC Gomel away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 0.53 + FC Gomel defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.86

FC Gomel attack 1.20 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more
22%
level
27%
FC Gomel scores more
51%

FC Gomel at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Artem Dylevski
24'
E. Imeryakov← A. Dylevskiy
39'
A. Nechaev← S. Kleshchuk
42'
V. Yatskevich
46'
V. Martinkevich← A. Shemruk
56'
Sergey Usenya
65'
Dmitriy Vashkevich
66'
A. Vlasov← I. Monich
66'
A. Butko← Fernando Neto
79'
M. Dukso← M. Samotoy
79'
E. Azerskiy← P. Tseslyukevich
81'
A. Potapenko← K. Cheburakov
81'
E. Barsukov← D. Borodin

Statistics

Molodechno-DYuSShFC
Discipline
3Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 vs FC Gomel

FC Gomel beat Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1-0 in Premier League on May 10, 2025.

Goals: V. Yatskevich (42').

The match was played at Molodechno Haradzki Stadion in Molodechno.