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FC Gomel vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 — Premier League 2018

FC Gomel
FC Gomel
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
R. Adeola 45'
T. Simanenka 23'
A. Sagitov 32'
9/28/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Centralnyj Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FC Gomel61%
×Draw22%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 418%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gomel
1.95
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.95

FC Gomel creates 105% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 15 away

creates per match

FC Gomel
1.43
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.73

allows per match

FC Gomel
1.17
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.47

finishing

FC Gomel+0.00on par
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gomel ↓

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Gomel or draw
82%
FC Gomel or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
78%
Draw or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
39%

Winning margin

FC Gomel wins by 2+
36%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Gomel 1+ goals
86%
FC Gomel 2+ goals
58%
FC Gomel 3+ goals
31%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals
61%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals
25%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Gomel (draw refunded)
77%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gomel at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.17 · 103 matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gomel attack 1.43 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.95

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 0.73 + FC Gomel defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FC Gomel scores more
61%
level
22%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more
18%

FC Gomel at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FC Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
T. Simanenka
32'
A. Sagitov↳ A. Butko
45'
R. Adeola↳ T. Simanenka
59'
Artur Sagitov
62'
Maksim Samotoy
64'
N. Lysenko← A. Djukic
73'
J. Assumu← A. Sagitov
76'
A. Potapenko← D. Laptev
79'
E. Barsukov← R. Adeola
90+3'
D. Emelyanov← A. Antilevskiy
90+3'
S. Matveychik← V. Martinkevich

Statistics

FCMolodechno-DYuSSh
Discipline
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: FC Gomel vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

FC Gomel beat Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2-1 in Premier League on September 28, 2025.

Goals: T. Simanenka (23'), A. Sagitov (32'), R. Adeola (45').

The match was played at Centralnyj Stadion in Gomel.