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Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 vs FC Dnepr Mogilev — 1. Division 2018

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
7/9/20231. Division1. Division · Round 15Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 437%
×Draw25%
FC Dnepr Mogilev38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.46
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 49 away

creates per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.75
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.82

allows per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.15
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.16

finishing

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par
FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 ↓

FC Dnepr Mogilev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or draw
62%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or FC Dnepr Mogilev
75%
Draw or FC Dnepr Mogilev
63%

Winning margin

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+
18%
FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals
77%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals
43%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals
18%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals
77%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals
43%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)
49%
FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.75 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 1.82 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more
37%
level
25%
FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more
38%

FC Dnepr Mogilev at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Dnepr Mogilev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 0–0 FC Dnepr Mogilev

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 and FC Dnepr Mogilev drew 0-0 in 1. Division on July 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Haradski in Molodechno.