FC Dnepr Mogilev 3–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

FC Dnepr Mogilev

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

11/11/2023

1. Division · Round 32Stadyen Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev58%

×Draw22%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 420%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Dnepr MogilevExpected goals in this matchMolodechno-DYuSSh 4

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.07

FC Dnepr Mogilev

1.97

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.07

FC Dnepr Mogilev creates 84% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 54 away

2.06

creates per match

1.31

0.84

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev

2.06

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.31

allows per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev

0.84

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Dnepr Mogilev ↓

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Dnepr Mogilev or draw

80%

FC Dnepr Mogilev or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

78%

Draw or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

42%

Winning margin

FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+

34%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals

86%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals

58%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals

31%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

66%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

29%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)

74%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Dnepr Mogilev at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.84 · 50 matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.87 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 2.06 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.97

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.31 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more

58%

level

22%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

20%

FC Dnepr Mogilev at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Dnepr Mogilev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff