Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2–1 Dinamo Minsk II

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dinamo Minsk II

A. Laval 78'

V. Fedosov 12'

M. Budko 23' (pen)

4/28/2024

1. Division · Round 4Stadyen Škol'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 437%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Minsk II37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Expected goals in this matchDinamo Minsk II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.34

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.32

Dinamo Minsk II

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 28 away

1.35

creates per match

1.39

1.29

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.35

Dinamo Minsk II

1.39

allows per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.29

Dinamo Minsk II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Dinamo Minsk II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 ↓

Dinamo Minsk II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or draw

63%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or Dinamo Minsk II

74%

Draw or Dinamo Minsk II

63%

Winning margin

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

16%

Dinamo Minsk II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

73%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

38%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

15%

Dinamo Minsk II 1+ goals

74%

Dinamo Minsk II 2+ goals

39%

Dinamo Minsk II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

49%

Dinamo Minsk II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Dinamo Minsk II away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.35 + Dinamo Minsk II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.32

Dinamo Minsk II attack 1.39 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

37%

level

26%

Dinamo Minsk II scores more

37%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

V. Fedosov

23'

M. BudkoPenalty

46'

M. Aleksandrov← M. Mikhayrin

59'

I. Monich← K. Goncharik

63'

A. Samuylik← M. Kalinovskiy

78'

A. Laval

85'

A. Krotov← P. Tseslyukevich

85'

G. Kutkovich← A. Kats

89'

R. Stepanov

90+1'

B. Kutsiy← V. Fedosov

90+1'

E. Nikoporenok← D. German

Molodechno-DYuSSh

Dinamo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Fedosov

Manager: A. Khrapkovskiy

59'▲I. Monich←▼K. Goncharik

85'▲A. Krotov←▼P. Tseslyukevich

85'▲G. Kutkovich←▼A. Kats

90+1'▲B. Kutsiy←▼V. Fedosov

90+1'▲E. Nikoporenok←▼D. German

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 substitutes

MonichKrotovKutkovichKutsiyNikoporenokDylevskiyTretyakImeryakovAdashkevichGuletskiy

Manager: D. Lentsevich

46'▲M. Aleksandrov←▼M. Mikhayrin

63'▲A. Samuylik←▼M. Kalinovskiy

Dinamo Minsk II substitutes

AleksandrovSamuylikGrabtsevichIvanyukovichFrolovAdamovichChernyavskiyLisovskiy

1. Division: Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2–1 Dinamo Minsk II

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 beat Dinamo Minsk II 2-1 in 1. Division on April 28, 2024.

Goals: V. Fedosov (12'), M. Budko (23' pen), A. Laval (78').

The match was played at Stadyen Škol'nyj in Chist'.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 vs Dinamo Minsk II — 1. Division 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2–1 Dinamo Minsk II