Dinamo Minsk II 3–3 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Dinamo Minsk II

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

T. Dubovik 57'

A. Sokolovskiy 51'

A. Zhechko 45'

M. Dubatovka 67' (OG)

A. Vlasov 62'

D. German 18'

8/25/2024

1. Division · Round 21Stadyen Dynama-Juni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Dinamo Minsk II40%

×Draw26%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 435%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Minsk IIExpected goals in this matchMolodechno-DYuSSh 4

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.31

Dinamo Minsk II

1.42

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 28 away

1.44

creates per match

1.50

1.12

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk II

1.44

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.50

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk II

1.12

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Minsk II+0.00on par

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk II ↓

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk II or draw

65%

Dinamo Minsk II or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

74%

Draw or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

60%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk II wins by 2+

19%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk II 1+ goals

76%

Dinamo Minsk II 2+ goals

41%

Dinamo Minsk II 3+ goals

17%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

73%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

38%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk II (draw refunded)

53%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk II at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk II attack 1.44 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.50 + Dinamo Minsk II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Minsk II scores more

40%

level

26%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

35%

Dinamo Minsk II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

32'

45'

51'

57'

59'

E. Molchan← A. Sokolovskiy

61'

A. Vlasov← P. Tseslyukevich

61'

K. Goncharik← B. Kutsiy

61'

V. Fastovets← D. German

62'

A. Vlasov

67'

M. DubatovkaOwn goal

82'

E. Isachenko← M. Aleksandrov

88'

A. Voskoboynikov← A. Grabtsevich

Dinamo

Molodechno-DYuSSh

⚽

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: D. Lentsevich

59'▲E. Molchan←▼A. Sokolovskiy

82'▲E. Isachenko←▼M. Aleksandrov

88'▲A. Voskoboynikov←▼A. Grabtsevich

Dinamo Minsk II substitutes

MolchanIsachenkoVoskoboynikovKonyakhinLitvinIvanyukovichPetrashko

Manager: A. Khrapkovskiy

61'▲A. Vlasov←▼P. Tseslyukevich

61'▲K. Goncharik←▼B. Kutsiy

61'▲V. Fastovets←▼D. German

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 substitutes

VlasovGoncharikFastovetsZiminTretyakNikoporenokGuletskiyKovalMonichUsenya

1. Division: Dinamo Minsk II 3–3 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Dinamo Minsk II and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 drew 3-3 in 1. Division on August 25, 2024.

Goals: D. German (18'), A. Zhechko (45'), A. Sokolovskiy (51'), T. Dubovik (57'), A. Vlasov (62'), M. Dubatovka (67' o.g.).

The match was played at Stadyen Dynama-Juni in Minsk.

Dinamo Minsk II vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 — 1. Division 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Dinamo Minsk II 3–3 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4