Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 4–0 Bumprom: Result & Stats

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bumprom

N. Ryabykh 88'

I. Monich 82' (pen)

E. Nikoporenok 57'

G. Guletskiy 5'

10/8/2023

1. Division · Round 27Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 446%

×Draw25%

Bumprom29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Expected goals in this matchBumprom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.21

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.59

Bumprom

1.21

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 56 away

1.75

creates per match

1.27

1.15

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.75

Bumprom

1.27

allows per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.15

Bumprom

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Bumprom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 ↓

Bumprom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or draw

71%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or Bumprom

75%

Draw or Bumprom

54%

Winning margin

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

24%

Bumprom wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

80%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

47%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

21%

Bumprom 1+ goals

70%

Bumprom 2+ goals

34%

Bumprom 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

61%

Bumprom (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

Bumprom away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.43 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.75 + Bumprom defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Bumprom attack 1.27 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

46%

level

25%

Bumprom scores more

29%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

8'

19'

50'

57'

64'

E. Chichev← A. Petrusevich

64'

A. Fedyanin← V. Lagutin

66'

D. Denisenko

66'

D. Denisenko

74'

Y. Volovik← V. Maslovskiy

77'

A. Miroevskiy← A. Zhvirblya

77'

K. Yashchenko← I. Yasinskiy

77'

N. Starostenko← E. Telepnev

78'

A. Kats

80'

N. Ryabykh← A. Krotov

82'

I. MonichPenalty

85'

A. Kandero← E. Nikoporenok

88'

N. Ryabykh

89'

S. Drozd← K. Potershuk

Molodechno-DYuSSh

Bumprom

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Khrapkovskiy

64'▲E. Chichev←▼A. Petrusevich

74'▲Y. Volovik←▼V. Maslovskiy

80'▲N. Ryabykh←▼A. Krotov

85'▲A. Kandero←▼E. Nikoporenok

89'▲S. Drozd←▼K. Potershuk

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 substitutes

ChichevVolovikRyabykhKanderoDrozdEreminokKazantsevBurakYukhnovich

Manager: A. Kravchenko

64'▲A. Fedyanin←▼V. Lagutin

77'▲A. Miroevskiy←▼A. Zhvirblya

77'▲K. Yashchenko←▼I. Yasinskiy

77'▲N. Starostenko←▼E. Telepnev

Bumprom substitutes

FedyaninMiroevskiyYashchenkoStarostenkoSebelev