Bumprom 2–1 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4: Result & Stats

Bumprom

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

E. Simonchik 51'

A. Zhevnerenko 16'

K. Goncharik 69'

6/2/2024

1. Division · Round 9Stadyen DYuSSh-8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Bumprom51%

×Draw23%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 427%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BumpromExpected goals in this matchMolodechno-DYuSSh 4

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.30

Bumprom

1.87

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.30

Bumprom creates 44% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 54 away

1.86

creates per match

1.31

1.29

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Bumprom

1.86

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.31

allows per match

Bumprom

1.29

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bumprom+0.00on par

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bumprom ↓

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Bumprom or draw

73%

Bumprom or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

77%

Draw or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

49%

Winning margin

Bumprom wins by 2+

28%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bumprom 1+ goals

85%

Bumprom 2+ goals

56%

Bumprom 3+ goals

29%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

73%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

37%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bumprom (draw refunded)

65%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bumprom at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.87 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bumprom attack 1.86 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.87

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.31 + Bumprom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bumprom scores more

51%

level

23%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

27%

Bumprom at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bumprom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

16'

35'

51'

55'

K. Goncharik← B. Kutsiy

55'

V. Fedosov← E. Nikoporenok

61'

I. Monich

69'

K. Goncharik

71'

M. Sanets← D. Makaev

71'

N. Zakrevskiy← D. Khalimonchikov

76'

A. Dylevskiy

76'

V. Fastovets← I. Monich

78'

V. Dubrovskiy← A. Zhevnerenko

84'

M. Vospukov← E. Simonchik

90+2'

V. Zernaev

Bumprom

Molodechno-DYuSSh

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Zhevneren

Zhvirblya

▼

Makaev

Manager: A. Kravchenko

71'▲M. Sanets←▼D. Makaev

71'▲N. Zakrevskiy←▼D. Khalimonchikov

78'▲V. Dubrovskiy←▼A. Zhevnerenko

84'▲M. Vospukov←▼E. Simonchik

Bumprom substitutes

SanetsZakrevskiyDubrovskiyVospukovVelisevichVorobyevKruzhilinDrapezaPyatigorets

Manager: A. Khrapkovskiy

55'▲K. Goncharik←▼B. Kutsiy

55'▲V. Fedosov←▼E. Nikoporenok

76'▲V. Fastovets←▼I. Monich

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 substitutes

GoncharikFedosovFastovetsKrotovTretyakImeryakovAdashkevichGuletskiyKhatkevich

Match Recap: Bumprom vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Bumprom beat Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2-1 in 1. Division on June 2, 2024.

Goals: A. Zhevnerenko (16'), E. Simonchik (51'), K. Goncharik (69').

The match was played at Stadyen DYuSSh-8 in Gomel.

Bumprom vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bumprom vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4