Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2–1 Baranovichi: Result & Stats

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Baranovichi

Y. Kozlov 61'

A. Shvedchikov 40'

D. Dubrov 90+6'

4/9/2023

1. Division · Round 2Stadyen Škol'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 439%

×Draw24%

Baranovichi36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Expected goals in this matchBaranovichi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.46

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.53

Baranovichi

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 28 away

1.35

creates per match

1.64

1.29

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.35

Baranovichi

1.64

allows per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.29

Baranovichi

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Baranovichi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 ↓

Baranovichi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or draw

64%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or Baranovichi

76%

Draw or Baranovichi

61%

Winning margin

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

19%

Baranovichi wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

78%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

45%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

20%

Baranovichi 1+ goals

77%

Baranovichi 2+ goals

43%

Baranovichi 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

52%

Baranovichi (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Baranovichi away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.71 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.35 + Baranovichi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.53

Baranovichi attack 1.64 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

39%

level

24%

Baranovichi scores more

36%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Z. Gitselev

40'

A. Shvedchikov

52'

A. Sorokin

54'

D. Bolbat← M. Domashevich

57'

V. Yasyukevich

61'

Y. Kozlov

64'

D. Dubrov← Z. Gitselev

68'

P. Rassolko

68'

E. Mikhey← A. Sorokin

69'

G. Guletskiy← E. Nikoporenok

80'

V. Yasyukevich

80'

V. Yasyukevich

80'

R. Burak← A. Krotov

82'

I. Monich← I. Narozhnik

82'

D. Galuza← E. Kozel

87'

P. Kazantsev← R. Burak

90+6'

D. Dubrov

Molodechno-DYuSSh

Baranovichi

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: S. Dorokhovich

69'▲G. Guletskiy←▼E. Nikoporenok

80'▲R. Burak←▼A. Krotov

82'▲I. Monich←▼I. Narozhnik

87'▲P. Kazantsev←▼R. Burak

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 substitutes

GuletskiyBurakMonichKazantsevKorzunTretyakChichevLutskiyRasolkoTarchilo

Manager: A. Kipra

54'▲D. Bolbat←▼M. Domashevich

64'▲D. Dubrov←▼Z. Gitselev

68'▲E. Mikhey←▼A. Sorokin

82'▲D. Galuza←▼E. Kozel

Baranovichi substitutes

BolbatDubrovMikheyGaluzaKiljimanovDomashevichKipraMartyugLukjanov

Match Recap: Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 vs Baranovichi

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 beat Baranovichi 2-1 in 1. Division on April 9, 2023.

Goals: A. Shvedchikov (40'), Y. Kozlov (61'), D. Dubrov (90+6').

The match was played at Stadyen Škol'nyj in Chist'.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 vs Baranovichi — 1. Division 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 vs Baranovichi