Baranovichi 2–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4: Result & Stats

Baranovichi

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

D. Galuza 66' (pen)

Z. Gitselev 50'

8/15/2023

1. Division · Round 19Klenovka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Baranovichi38%

×Draw23%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 439%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaranovichiExpected goals in this matchMolodechno-DYuSSh 4

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.67

Baranovichi

1.65

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 16 away

1.67

creates per match

1.63

1.70

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Baranovichi

1.67

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.63

allows per match

Baranovichi

1.70

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baranovichi+0.00on par

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baranovichi ↓

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Baranovichi or draw

61%

Baranovichi or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

77%

Draw or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

62%

Winning margin

Baranovichi wins by 2+

19%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Baranovichi 1+ goals

81%

Baranovichi 2+ goals

49%

Baranovichi 3+ goals

23%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

81%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

50%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Baranovichi (draw refunded)

49%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baranovichi at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baranovichi attack 1.67 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.63 + Baranovichi defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Baranovichi scores more

38%

level

23%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

39%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

23'

45+1'

50'

52'

60'

M. Lukjanov← A. Sorokin

62'

I. Monich← A. Krotov

64'

N. Ryabykh

66'

D. GaluzaPenalty

67'

A. Chizh← T. Baranovskiy

70'

D. Dubrov← D. Galuza

70'

A. Korzun← V. Maslovskiy

72'

A. Petrusevich← A. Kats

77'

D. Domashevich← M. Shevchenko

78'

N. Ereminok← E. Nikoporenok

80'

E. Mikhey← D. Domashevich

86'

Y. Kozlov

90+3'

I. Monich

Baranovichi

Molodechno-DYuSSh

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Galuza

Manager: A. Kipra

60'▲M. Lukjanov←▼A. Sorokin

67'▲A. Chizh←▼T. Baranovskiy

70'▲D. Dubrov←▼D. Galuza

77'▲D. Domashevich←▼M. Shevchenko

80'▲E. Mikhey←▼D. Domashevich

Baranovichi substitutes

LukjanovChizhDubrovDomashevichMikheyKiljimanovKipraKozelMartyugDomashevich

Manager: A. Khrapkovskiy

62'▲I. Monich←▼A. Krotov

70'▲A. Korzun←▼V. Maslovskiy

72'▲A. Petrusevich←▼A. Kats

78'▲N. Ereminok←▼E. Nikoporenok

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 substitutes

MonichKorzunPetrusevichEreminokTretyakGuletskiyNarozhnikPotershukKozyurenkoBurak

1. Division: Baranovichi 2–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Baranovichi beat Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2-0 in 1. Division on August 15, 2023.

Goals: Z. Gitselev (50'), D. Galuza (66' pen).

The match was played at Klenovka Arena in Ivatsevichy.

Baranovichi vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 — 1. Division 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Baranovichi 2–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4