Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3–2 ABFF U17: Result & Stats

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

ABFF U17

I. Monich 84'

K. Goncharik 76'

D. Ovsyannikov 38' (OG)

M. Aleksandrov 51', 26'

5/24/2024

1. Division · Round 8Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 451%

×Draw24%

ABFF U1725%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Expected goals in this matchABFF U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.10

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.70

ABFF U17

1.10

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

1.75

creates per match

1.06

1.15

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.75

ABFF U17

1.06

allows per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.15

ABFF U17

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

ABFF U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 ↓

ABFF U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or draw

75%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or ABFF U17

76%

Draw or ABFF U17

49%

Winning margin

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

28%

ABFF U17 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

82%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

51%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

24%

ABFF U17 1+ goals

67%

ABFF U17 2+ goals

30%

ABFF U17 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

68%

ABFF U17 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

ABFF U17 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.75 + ABFF U17 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.70

ABFF U17 attack 1.06 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

51%

level

24%

ABFF U17 scores more

25%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

M. Aleksandrov

38'

D. OvsyannikovOwn goal

46'

K. Goncharik← B. Kutsiy

48'

D. Ovsyannikov

51'

M. Aleksandrov

70'

P. Tseslyukevich← E. Nikoporenok

70'

S. Absamadov← S. Bylinovich

70'

D. Volskiy← S. Zhivushko

76'

K. Goncharik

77'

V. Pulkach← M. Aleksandrov

81'

I. Monich← V. Fedosov

81'

V. Fastovets← D. German

82'

V. Pulkach

84'

I. Monich

89'

A. Derzhinskiy← V. Skomarovskiy

89'

G. Mishin← A. Stanul

89'

I. Gubarevich← D. Ovsyannikov

90+2'

I. Monich

Molodechno-DYuSSh

ABFF

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Aleksandr

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Khrapkovskiy

46'▲K. Goncharik←▼B. Kutsiy

70'▲P. Tseslyukevich←▼E. Nikoporenok

70'▲S. Absamadov←▼S. Bylinovich

81'▲I. Monich←▼V. Fedosov

81'▲V. Fastovets←▼D. German

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 substitutes

GoncharikTseslyukevichAbsamadovMonichFastovetsKrotovAdashkevichGuletskiyStepanovUsenya

Manager: P. Evseenko

70'▲D. Volskiy←▼S. Zhivushko

77'▲V. Pulkach←▼M. Aleksandrov

89'▲A. Derzhinskiy←▼V. Skomarovskiy

89'▲G. Mishin←▼A. Stanul

89'▲I. Gubarevich←▼D. Ovsyannikov

ABFF U17 substitutes

VolskiyPulkachDerzhinskiyMishinGubarevichGusevSeredaLashkevichMatysyukStruk