ABFF U17 0–1 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4: Result & Stats

ABFF U17

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

9/21/2024

1. Division · Round 25Trėnirovachny kompleks ABFF Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ABFF U1736%

×Draw26%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 438%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABFF U17Expected goals in this matchMolodechno-DYuSSh 4

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.36

ABFF U17

1.31

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 54 away

0.76

creates per match

1.31

1.41

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

ABFF U17

0.76

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.31

allows per match

ABFF U17

1.41

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABFF U17+0.00on par

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABFF U17 ↓

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

ABFF U17 or draw

62%

ABFF U17 or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

74%

Draw or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

64%

Winning margin

ABFF U17 wins by 2+

16%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

ABFF U17 1+ goals

73%

ABFF U17 2+ goals

38%

ABFF U17 3+ goals

14%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

74%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

39%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

ABFF U17 (draw refunded)

48%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABFF U17 at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.87 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABFF U17 attack 0.76 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.31

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.31 + ABFF U17 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ABFF U17 scores more

36%

level

26%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

38%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff