Mollerussa 2–3 Badalona II: Result & Stats

Mollerussa

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Badalona II

2/23/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 23Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Mollerussa40%

×Draw27%

Badalona II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MollerussaExpected goals in this matchBadalona II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.21

Mollerussa

1.34

Badalona II

1.21

Mollerussa creates 11% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 49 away

1.41

creates per match

1.12

1.29

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Mollerussa

1.41

Badalona II

1.12

allows per match

Mollerussa

1.29

Badalona II

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mollerussa+0.00on par

Badalona II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mollerussa ↓

Badalona II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mollerussa or draw

66%

Mollerussa or Badalona II

73%

Draw or Badalona II

60%

Winning margin

Mollerussa wins by 2+

18%

Badalona II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mollerussa 1+ goals

74%

Mollerussa 2+ goals

39%

Mollerussa 3+ goals

15%

Badalona II 1+ goals

70%

Badalona II 2+ goals

34%

Badalona II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mollerussa (draw refunded)

54%

Badalona II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mollerussa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Badalona II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mollerussa attack 1.41 + Badalona II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Badalona II attack 1.12 + Mollerussa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mollerussa scores more

40%

level

27%

Badalona II scores more

34%

Mollerussa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mollerussa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff