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Badalona II vs Mollerussa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Badalona II
Badalona II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mollerussa
Mollerussa
10/13/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 6Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Badalona II49%
×Draw26%
Mollerussa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badalona II
1.52
Mollerussa
1.02

Badalona II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 51 away

creates per match

Badalona II
1.49
Mollerussa
1.04

allows per match

Badalona II
1.00
Mollerussa
1.55

finishing

Badalona II+0.00on par
Mollerussa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badalona II ↓

Mollerussa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Badalona II or draw
75%
Badalona II or Mollerussa
74%
Draw or Mollerussa
51%

Winning margin

Badalona II wins by 2+
25%
Mollerussa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Badalona II 1+ goals
78%
Badalona II 2+ goals
45%
Badalona II 3+ goals
20%
Mollerussa 1+ goals
64%
Mollerussa 2+ goals
27%
Mollerussa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Badalona II (draw refunded)
66%
Mollerussa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badalona II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 49 matches

Mollerussa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badalona II attack 1.49 + Mollerussa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mollerussa attack 1.04 + Badalona II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Badalona II scores more
49%
level
26%
Mollerussa scores more
25%

Badalona II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Badalona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Badalona II 2–1 Mollerussa

Badalona II beat Mollerussa 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Badalona in Badalona.