Molinos El Pirata 2–2 Carlos Stein: Result & Stats

Molinos El Pirata

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Carlos Stein

8/8/2023

Segunda División · Round 19Estadio de la Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Molinos El Pirata55%

×Draw22%

Carlos Stein23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molinos El PirataExpected goals in this matchCarlos Stein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.24

Molinos El Pirata

2.01

Carlos Stein

1.24

Molinos El Pirata creates 62% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 34 away

1.23

creates per match

1.09

1.39

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Molinos El Pirata

1.23

Carlos Stein

1.09

allows per match

Molinos El Pirata

1.39

Carlos Stein

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par

Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molinos El Pirata ↓

Carlos Stein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Molinos El Pirata or draw

77%

Molinos El Pirata or Carlos Stein

78%

Draw or Carlos Stein

45%

Winning margin

Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+

32%

Carlos Stein wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals

87%

Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals

59%

Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals

32%

Carlos Stein 1+ goals

71%

Carlos Stein 2+ goals

35%

Carlos Stein 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)

70%

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molinos El Pirata at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.39 · 66 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molinos El Pirata attack 1.23 + Carlos Stein defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.01

Carlos Stein attack 1.09 + Molinos El Pirata defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Molinos El Pirata scores more

55%

level

22%

Carlos Stein scores more

23%

Molinos El Pirata at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Molinos El Pirata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff