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Carlos Stein vs Molinos El Pirata — Segunda División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Molinos El Pirata
Molinos El Pirata
4/24/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3Estadio de la Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Carlos Stein38%
×Draw23%
Molinos El Pirata38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.60
Molinos El Pirata
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 64 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.12
Molinos El Pirata
0.95

allows per match

Carlos Stein
2.24
Molinos El Pirata
2.08

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Molinos El Pirata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
62%
Carlos Stein or Molinos El Pirata
77%
Draw or Molinos El Pirata
62%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
19%
Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
80%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
47%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
22%
Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals
80%
Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals
47%
Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
50%
Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

Molinos El Pirata away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.08 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.12 + Molinos El Pirata defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.60

Molinos El Pirata attack 0.95 + Carlos Stein defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
38%
level
23%
Molinos El Pirata scores more
38%

Carlos Stein at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Carlos Stein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Carlos Stein 0–1 Molinos El Pirata

Molinos El Pirata beat Carlos Stein 1-0 in Segunda División on April 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud in Chongoyape.