Molinos El Pirata 0–1 Alfonso Ugarte Puno

Molinos El Pirata

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

5/7/2022

Segunda División · Apertura - 6Estadio de la Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Molinos El Pirata50%

×Draw24%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molinos El PirataExpected goals in this matchAlfonso Ugarte Puno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.17

Molinos El Pirata

1.70

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

1.17

Molinos El Pirata creates 45% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 25 away

1.23

creates per match

0.96

1.39

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Molinos El Pirata

1.23

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

0.96

allows per match

Molinos El Pirata

1.39

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par

Alfonso Ugarte Puno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molinos El Pirata ↓

Alfonso Ugarte Puno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Molinos El Pirata or draw

74%

Molinos El Pirata or Alfonso Ugarte Puno

76%

Draw or Alfonso Ugarte Puno

50%

Winning margin

Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+

27%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals

82%

Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals

51%

Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals

24%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1+ goals

69%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2+ goals

33%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)

65%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molinos El Pirata at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.39 · 66 matches

Alfonso Ugarte Puno away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molinos El Pirata attack 1.23 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.70

Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 0.96 + Molinos El Pirata defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Molinos El Pirata scores more

50%

level

24%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno scores more

26%

Molinos El Pirata at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Molinos El Pirata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff