Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3–0 Molinos El Pirata

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Molinos El Pirata

5/31/2023

Segunda División · Round 8Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Alfonso Ugarte Puno61%

×Draw21%

Molinos El Pirata18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alfonso Ugarte PunoExpected goals in this matchMolinos El Pirata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.94

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

1.96

Molinos El Pirata

0.94

Alfonso Ugarte Puno creates 109% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 64 away

1.84

creates per match

0.95

0.92

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

1.84

Molinos El Pirata

0.95

allows per match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

0.92

Molinos El Pirata

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alfonso Ugarte Puno+0.00on par

Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfonso Ugarte Puno ↓

Molinos El Pirata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Alfonso Ugarte Puno or draw

82%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno or Molinos El Pirata

79%

Draw or Molinos El Pirata

39%

Winning margin

Alfonso Ugarte Puno wins by 2+

37%

Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1+ goals

86%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2+ goals

58%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3+ goals

31%

Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals

61%

Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals

24%

Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Alfonso Ugarte Puno (draw refunded)

78%

Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfonso Ugarte Puno at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Molinos El Pirata away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.08 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 1.84 + Molinos El Pirata defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.96

Molinos El Pirata attack 0.95 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Alfonso Ugarte Puno scores more

61%

level

21%

Molinos El Pirata scores more

18%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Alfonso Ugarte Puno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff