Molinos El Pirata 0–2 Academia Cantolao

Molinos El Pirata

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Academia Cantolao

A. Flores 89'

F. Pérez 83'

9/21/2024

Segunda División · Promotion Round - 9Estadio de la Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Molinos El Pirata43%

×Draw26%

Academia Cantolao31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molinos El PirataExpected goals in this matchAcademia Cantolao

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.15

Molinos El Pirata

1.40

Academia Cantolao

1.15

Molinos El Pirata creates 22% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 28 away

1.25

creates per match

0.89

1.40

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Molinos El Pirata

1.25

Academia Cantolao

0.89

allows per match

Molinos El Pirata

1.40

Academia Cantolao

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molinos El Pirata ↓

Academia Cantolao →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Molinos El Pirata or draw

69%

Molinos El Pirata or Academia Cantolao

74%

Draw or Academia Cantolao

57%

Winning margin

Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+

20%

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals

75%

Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals

41%

Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals

17%

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals

68%

Academia Cantolao 2+ goals

32%

Academia Cantolao 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)

58%

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molinos El Pirata at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.40 · 67 matches

Academia Cantolao away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molinos El Pirata attack 1.25 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Academia Cantolao attack 0.89 + Molinos El Pirata defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Molinos El Pirata scores more

43%

level

26%

Academia Cantolao scores more

31%

Molinos El Pirata at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Molinos El Pirata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

H. Hoyos

57'

A. Domínguez← L. Díaz

62'

J. Córdova← J. Esparza

67'

S. Hidalgo← A. Gadea

71'

F. Butron

71'

F. Pérez← G. Leyva

71'

J. Lara← S. Taype

80'

F. Butron

80'

F. Butron

83'

F. Pérez

88'

J. Cánova← R. Ardiles

88'

R. Alzamora← P. Peral

89'

A. Flores

90+3'

F. Perez

Molinos

Academia

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Butrón

57'▲A. Domínguez←▼L. Díaz

67'▲S. Hidalgo←▼A. Gadea

Molinos El Pirata substitutes

DomínguezHidalgoCañaCisnerosLozadaParedesRoblesSantosLozano

Manager: J. Sócola

62'▲J. Córdova←▼J. Esparza

71'▲F. Pérez←▼G. Leyva

71'▲J. Lara←▼S. Taype

88'▲J. Cánova←▼R. Ardiles

88'▲R. Alzamora←▼P. Peral

Academia Cantolao substitutes

CórdovaPérezLaraCánovaAlzamoraCostaBringasGatica