Academia Cantolao 2–2 Molinos El Pirata

Academia Cantolao

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Molinos El Pirata

M. López 80' (pen)

F. da Costa 58'

F. Fernández 37'

M. Zárate 25'

8/27/2024

Segunda División · Promotion Round - 4Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Academia Cantolao48%

×Draw25%

Molinos El Pirata27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academia CantolaoExpected goals in this matchMolinos El Pirata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.13

Academia Cantolao

1.59

Molinos El Pirata

1.13

Academia Cantolao creates 41% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 64 away

1.10

creates per match

0.95

1.30

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Academia Cantolao

1.10

Molinos El Pirata

0.95

allows per match

Academia Cantolao

1.30

Molinos El Pirata

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par

Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Cantolao ↓

Molinos El Pirata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Academia Cantolao or draw

73%

Academia Cantolao or Molinos El Pirata

75%

Draw or Molinos El Pirata

52%

Winning margin

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+

25%

Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals

80%

Academia Cantolao 2+ goals

47%

Academia Cantolao 3+ goals

21%

Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals

68%

Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals

31%

Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)

64%

Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Cantolao at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Molinos El Pirata away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.08 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Cantolao attack 1.10 + Molinos El Pirata defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.59

Molinos El Pirata attack 0.95 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Academia Cantolao scores more

48%

level

25%

Molinos El Pirata scores more

27%

Academia Cantolao at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Academia Cantolao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

J. Canova

25'

M. Zárate

37'

F. Fernández

39'

42'

A. Laura

46'

A. Uceda← J. Córdova

52'

F. da Costa← J. Cánova

55'

L. Díaz← Y. Hoyos

58'

F. da Costa

67'

P. Ramírez← R. Robles

69'

72'

75'

75'

75'

A. Gadea← F. Fernández

75'

C. Lasso← A. Domínguez

76'

77'

M. Peralta

80'

M. LópezPenalty

90+2'

A. Uceda

90+4'

M. Cabanillas← A. Laura

Academia

Molinos

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Sócola

46'▲A. Uceda←▼J. Córdova

52'▲F. da Costa←▼J. Cánova

75'▲E. Ciucci←▼P. Peral

75'▲R. Bringas←▼G. Oliva

90+4'▲M. Cabanillas←▼A. Laura

Academia Cantolao substitutes

UcedaCostaCiucciBringasCabanillasAlzamoraBettocchiChávezTaype

Manager: J. Butrón

55'▲L. Díaz←▼Y. Hoyos

67'▲P. Ramírez←▼R. Robles

75'▲A. Gadea←▼F. Fernández

75'▲C. Lasso←▼A. Domínguez

Molinos El Pirata substitutes

DíazRamírezGadeaLassoCañaButrónLozadaHidalgo