Moldova 0–2 Greece: Result & Stats

Moldova

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Greece

Anastasios Bakasetas 41'

Kostas Fortounis 32'

11/15/2020

UEFA Nations League · League C - 5Stadionul Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Moldova25%

×Draw28%

Greece47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldovaExpected goals in this matchGreece

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.31

Moldova

0.86

Greece

1.31

Greece creates 52% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.18

creates per match

1.27

1.36

allows per match

0.55

creates per match

Moldova

1.18

Greece

1.27

allows per match

Moldova

1.36

Greece

0.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moldova+0.00on par

Greece+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova ↓

Greece →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–115%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Moldova or draw

53%

Moldova or Greece

72%

Draw or Greece

75%

Winning margin

Moldova wins by 2+

8%

Greece wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Moldova 1+ goals

58%

Moldova 2+ goals

21%

Moldova 3+ goals

6%

Greece 1+ goals

73%

Greece 2+ goals

38%

Greece 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Moldova (draw refunded)

34%

Greece (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moldova at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Greece away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moldova attack 1.18 + Greece defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.86

Greece attack 1.27 + Moldova defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Moldova scores more

25%

level

28%

Greece scores more

47%

Greece at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Greece will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Anastasios Bakasetas

Greece · M

8.7

Match Events

32'

Kostas Fortounis↳ Anastasios Bakasetas

41'

Anastasios Bakasetas↳ Kostas Fortounis

46'

Mihail Caimacov← Eugeniu Cociuc

46'

Alexandru Epureanu← Eugeniu Cebotaru

47'

Charis Mavrias

61'

Ion Jardan

62'

Iaser Turcan← Vadim Rață

62'

Giorgos Kyriakopoulos← Konstantinos Tsimikas

65'

Christos Tzolis← Kostas Fortounis

71'

Cristian Dros← Vitalie Damașcan

78'

Giorgos Giakoumakis← Vangelis Pavlidis

78'

Anastasios Chatzigiovanis← Dimitris Limnios

83'

Alexandru Boychuk← Artur Ioniță

90+1'

Veaceslav Posmac

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoldovaGreece

Overview

32%Possession68%

6Total Shots10

1Corners9

17Fouls14

Shots

6Total Shots10

0On Target6

3Off Target2

3Blocked2

0Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

32%Possession68%

331Total Passes685

247Accurate Passes601

75%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0