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Greece vs Moldova — UEFA Nations League 2018

Greece
Greece
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Moldova
Moldova
Petros Mantalos 50'
Anastasios Bakasetas 45+3' (pen)
10/11/2020UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 3Spiros Louis Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Greece50%
×Draw33%
Moldova18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greece
1.10
Moldova
0.53

Greece creates 108% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Greece
1.31
Moldova
0.60

allows per match

Greece
0.46
Moldova
0.90

finishing

Greece+0.00on par
Moldova+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece ↓

Moldova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–110%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Greece or draw
82%
Greece or Moldova
67%
Draw or Moldova
50%

Winning margin

Greece wins by 2+
21%
Moldova wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Greece 1+ goals
67%
Greece 2+ goals
30%
Greece 3+ goals
10%
Moldova 1+ goals
41%
Moldova 2+ goals
10%
Moldova 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Greece (draw refunded)
74%
Moldova (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Moldova away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece attack 1.31 + Moldova defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.10

Moldova attack 0.60 + Greece defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Greece scores more
50%
level
33%
Moldova scores more
18%

Greece at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Greece will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Anastasios BakasetasGreeceGreece · M
8.7

Match Events

17'
Mihail Caimacov
45+3'
Anastasios BakasetasPenalty
45+2'
Veaceslav Posmac
46'
Alexandru Epureanu← Mihail Caimacov
50'
Petros Mantalos↳ Anastasios Bakasetas
57'
Ion Nicolaescu
58'
Nicolae Milinceanu← Ion Nicolaescu
64'
Igor Armas
66'
Denis Marandici← Vadim Rață
69'
Lazaros Rota← Pantelis Hatzidiakos
70'
Kostas Fortounis← Petros Mantalos
76'
Dimitris Pelkas← Dimitris Limnios
76'
Petru Racu← Artur Ioniță
83'
Andreas Bouchalakis← Dimitrios Kourbelis
83'
Taxiarchis Fountas← Vangelis Pavlidis
88'
Lazaros Rota
88'
Nicolae MilinceanuMissed penalty
90+4'
Kostas Fortounis
90+4'
Petru Racu

Possession

80%Greece

Shots

20Greece

Pass accuracy

61%Greece

Statistics

GreeceMoldova
Overview
80%Possession20%
20Total Shots1
7Corners0
8Fouls20
Shots
20Total Shots1
10On Target1
3Off Target0
7Blocked0
12Inside Box1
8Outside Box0
Passing
80%Possession20%
810Total Passes195
715Accurate Passes110
88%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
1Saves8
Discipline
8Fouls20
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
3Offsides1

UEFA Nations League: Greece 2–0 Moldova

Greece beat Moldova 2-0 in UEFA Nations League on October 11, 2020.

Goals: Anastasios Bakasetas (45+3' pen), Petros Mantalos (50').

Greece controlled possession (80%) and registered 20 shots to 1.

The match was played at Spiros Louis Olympic Stadium in Athens.