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Moldova vs Cyprus — Friendlies 2026

Moldova
Moldova
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Cyprus
Cyprus
V. Bogaciuc 78'
V. Stînă 71'
N. Moțpan 43'
I. Pittas 53'
D. Spoljaric 51'
6/8/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Stadionul Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Moldova32%
×Draw23%
Cyprus45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moldova
1.46
Cyprus
1.77

Cyprus creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Moldova
1.00
Cyprus
1.55

allows per match

Moldova
2.00
Cyprus
1.91

finishing

Moldova+0.00on par
Cyprus+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova ↓

Cyprus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Moldova or draw
55%
Moldova or Cyprus
77%
Draw or Cyprus
68%

Winning margin

Moldova wins by 2+
15%
Cyprus wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Moldova 1+ goals
77%
Moldova 2+ goals
43%
Moldova 3+ goals
18%
Cyprus 1+ goals
83%
Cyprus 2+ goals
53%
Cyprus 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Moldova (draw refunded)
42%
Cyprus (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moldova at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

Cyprus away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moldova attack 1.00 + Cyprus defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cyprus attack 1.55 + Moldova defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Moldova scores more
32%
level
23%
Cyprus scores more
45%

Cyprus at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cyprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
N. Moțpan
45+2'
Artur Crăciun
45'
Loizos Loizou
46'
O. Reabciuk← S. Cojocari
46'
V. Damaşcan← N. Moțpan
51'
D. Spoljaric
53'
I. Pittas
54'
C. Kyriakou← A. Chrysostomou
55'
S. Gavriel← L. Loizou
60'
K. Artymatas← D. Spoljaric
60'
S. Andreou← H. Kyprianou
64'
V. Postolachi← M. Caimacov
64'
V. Stînă← A. Ioniţă
69'
Victor Stina
71'
V. Stînă
77'
V. Bogaciuc← V. Baboglo
77'
N. Cleșcenco← I. Nicolăescu
78'
V. Bogaciuc
83'
M. Ilia← G. Satsias
90+5'
Vitalie Damașcan

Possession

52%Moldova

Shots

12Moldova

Statistics

MoldovaCyprus
Overview
52%Possession48%
12Total Shots13
6Corners2
11Fouls6
Shots
12Total Shots13
7On Target4
4Off Target4
1Blocked5
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls6
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Friendlies: Moldova 3–2 Cyprus

Moldova beat Cyprus 3-2 in Friendlies on June 8, 2024.

Goals: N. Moțpan (43'), D. Spoljaric (51'), I. Pittas (53'), V. Stînă (71'), V. Bogaciuc (78').

Moldova controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadionul Zimbru in Chişinău.