Cyprus 3–2 Moldova: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Cyprus

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Moldova

C. Charalampous 44', 30'

G. Kastanos 5'

V. Stina 88'

P. Popescu 55'

3/30/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalGSP Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Cyprus41%

×Draw27%

Moldova32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CyprusExpected goals in this matchMoldova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.15

Cyprus

1.35

Moldova

1.15

Cyprus creates 17% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

0.88

creates per match

0.67

1.63

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Cyprus

0.88

Moldova

0.67

allows per match

Cyprus

1.63

Moldova

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cyprus+0.00on par

Moldova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus ↓

Moldova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cyprus or draw

68%

Cyprus or Moldova

73%

Draw or Moldova

59%

Winning margin

Cyprus wins by 2+

19%

Moldova wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cyprus 1+ goals

74%

Cyprus 2+ goals

39%

Cyprus 3+ goals

15%

Moldova 1+ goals

68%

Moldova 2+ goals

32%

Moldova 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cyprus (draw refunded)

56%

Moldova (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cyprus at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Moldova away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus attack 0.88 + Moldova defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.35

Moldova attack 0.67 + Cyprus defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cyprus scores more

41%

level

27%

Moldova scores more

32%

Cyprus at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cyprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

G. Kastanos↳ L. Loizou

30'

C. Charalampous

37'

S. Perciun← D. Puscas

44'

C. Charalampous

46'

S. Negru← M. Stefan

46'

S. Bodisteanu← T. Lungu

46'

D. Forov← D. Dumbravanu

47'

Ştefan Bodişteanu

55'

P. Popescu↳ I. Revenco

58'

I. Bors← V. Fratea

61'

I. Kosti← L. Loizou

61'

E. Andreou← C. Charalampous

73'

I. Kousoulos← C. Kyriakou

74'

A. Shikkis← G. Satsias

80'

V. Bogaciuc←

81'

V. Stina← V. Rata

81'

S. Platica← P. Popescu

85'

P. Andreou← G. Kastanos

85'

E. Antoniou← N. Panagiotou

86'

Anderson Correia← K. Pileas

86'

N. Koutsakos← I. Pittas

86'

A. Neofytou← A. Kakoullis

88'

V. Stina

90+1'

Antreas Paraskevas

Possession

Statistics

CyprusMoldova

Overview

50%Possession50%

4Corners1

5Fouls13

Shots

5On Target4

7Off Target1

7Blocked1

Passing

50%Possession50%

Discipline

5Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2

Friendlies: Cyprus 3–2 Moldova

Cyprus beat Moldova 3-2 in Friendlies on March 30, 2026.

Goals: G. Kastanos (5'), C. Charalampous (30', 44'), P. Popescu (55'), V. Stina (88').

Cyprus dominated possession with 50% of the ball.

The match was played at GSP Stadium in Nicosia.

Cyprus vs Moldova — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Statistics

Friendlies: Cyprus 3–2 Moldova