Molde 3–0 Stabaek: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Molde

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Stabaek

Mattias Mostrom 81'

Ohi Omoijuanfo 38'

Magnus Eikrem 32'

4/7/2019

Eliteserien · Round 2Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Molde53%

×Draw21%

Stabaek26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldeExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.42

Molde

2.10

Stabaek

1.42

Molde creates 48% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 7 away

2.05

creates per match

1.63

1.21

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Molde

2.05

Stabaek

1.63

allows per match

Molde

1.21

Stabaek

2.15

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

Molde+0.19scores more

Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Molde or draw

74%

Molde or Stabaek

79%

Draw or Stabaek

47%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+

31%

Stabaek wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals

88%

Molde 2+ goals

62%

Molde 3+ goals

35%

Stabaek 1+ goals

76%

Stabaek 2+ goals

41%

Stabaek 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)

67%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.21 · 37 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 2.05 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.10

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Molde defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Molde scores more

53%

level

21%

Stabaek scores more

26%

Molde at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Magnus Eikrem

Molde · M

8.4

Match Events

32'

Magnus Eikrem

38'

Ohi Omoijuanfo↳ Eirik Hestad

63'

Mattias Mostrom← Eirik Andersen

63'

Daniel Braaten← Hugo Vetlesen

63'

Kristoffer Askildsen← Emil Bohinen

79'

Luc Kassi

80'

Fredrik Sjolstad← Magnus Eikrem

81'

Mattias Mostrom↳ Kristoffer Haraldseid

81'

Ola Brynhildsen← Ola Brynhildsen

87'

Leke James← Ohi Omoijuanfo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoldeStabaek

Overview

63%Possession37%

26Total Shots7

7Corners3

8Fouls4

Shots

26Total Shots7

15On Target4

6Off Target2

5Blocked1

16Inside Box1

10Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

701Total Passes406

617Accurate Passes326

88%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves12

Discipline

8Fouls4

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides3

Eliteserien: Molde 3–0 Stabaek

Molde beat Stabaek 3-0 in Eliteserien on April 7, 2019.

Goals: Magnus Eikrem (32'), Ohi Omoijuanfo (38'), Mattias Mostrom (81').

Molde controlled possession (63%) and registered 26 shots to 7.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.

Molde vs Stabaek — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Molde 3–0 Stabaek