Molde 2–0 Haugesund: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Molde

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Haugesund

K. Haugen 53'

L. James 2'

11/11/2018

Eliteserien · Round 29Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Molde61%

×Draw20%

Haugesund18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldeExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.10

Molde

2.17

Haugesund

1.10

Molde creates 97% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 30 away

1.98

creates per match

1.07

1.13

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Molde

1.98

Haugesund

1.07

allows per match

Molde

1.13

Haugesund

2.36

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Molde+0.21scores more

Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Molde or draw

82%

Molde or Haugesund

80%

Draw or Haugesund

39%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+

38%

Haugesund wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals

89%

Molde 2+ goals

64%

Molde 3+ goals

36%

Haugesund 1+ goals

67%

Haugesund 2+ goals

30%

Haugesund 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)

77%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 1.98 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.17

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Molde defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Molde scores more

61%

level

20%

Haugesund scores more

18%

Molde at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

K. Haugen

Molde · D

8.2

Match Events

2'

L. James↳ C. Remmer

16'

Fredrik Knudsen

46'

P. Strand← P. Cibicki

53'

K. Haugen↳ E. Hestad

64'

T. Svendsen← Bruno Leite

77'

I. Koné← J. Nilsen

78'

M. Mostrøm← E. Hestad

84'

B. Sarr← M. Eikrem

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoldeHaugesund

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots8

11Corners8

5Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots8

8On Target5

1Off Target2

3Blocked1

9Inside Box3

3Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

466Total Passes415

375Accurate Passes318

80%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

5Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

8Offsides4