Haugesund 0–2 Molde: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Haugesund

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Molde

C. Zady 90'

O. Spiten-Nysaeter 52'

11/9/2025

Eliteserien · Round 28Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Haugesund29%

×Draw25%

Molde46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.59

Haugesund

1.21

Molde

1.59

Molde creates 31% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 37 away

1.12

creates per match

1.47

1.72

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Haugesund

1.12

Molde

1.47

allows per match

Haugesund

1.72

Molde

1.29

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Haugesund-0.41scores less

Molde-0.01on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

54%

Haugesund or Molde

75%

Draw or Molde

71%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

12%

Molde wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

70%

Haugesund 2+ goals

34%

Haugesund 3+ goals

12%

Molde 1+ goals

80%

Molde 2+ goals

47%

Molde 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

39%

Molde (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.72 · 28 matches

Molde away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.12 + Molde defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Molde attack 1.47 + Haugesund defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Haugesund scores more

29%

level

25%

Molde scores more

46%

Molde at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

N. Kasanwirjo

Molde · D

7.9

Match Events

52'

O. Spiten-Nysaeter↳ N. Kasanwirjo

60'

M. Eikrem← S. Granaas

60'

H. Stenevik← I. Amundsen

62'

H. V. Karlsen← E. Rohd

62'

I. Camara← A. Bondhus

73'

F. A. Jakobsen← T. Nyhammer

74'

V. Solheim← P. Bizoza

84'

Oskar Spiten-Nysæter

86'

C. Zady← O. Spiten-Nysaeter

86'

A. Roaldsoy← M. Daehli

89'

G. Nyheim← F. Gulbrandsen

90+1'

Magnus Wolff Eikrem

90'

C. Zady↳ G. Nyheim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundMolde

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots14

0.70Expected Goals (xG)1.46

5Corners4

11Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots14

2On Target3

6Off Target10

2Blocked1

8Inside Box8

2Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

388Total Passes546

296Accurate Passes464

76%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2