Haugesund 0–3 Molde: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Haugesund

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Molde

E. Haugan 90+3'

F. Ihler 83' (pen)

K. Eriksen 1'

10/27/2024

Eliteserien · Round 26Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Haugesund29%

×Draw25%

Molde46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.59

Haugesund

1.21

Molde

1.59

Molde creates 31% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 37 away

1.12

creates per match

1.47

1.72

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Haugesund

1.12

Molde

1.47

allows per match

Haugesund

1.72

Molde

1.29

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Haugesund-0.41scores less

Molde-0.01on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

54%

Haugesund or Molde

75%

Draw or Molde

71%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

12%

Molde wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

70%

Haugesund 2+ goals

34%

Haugesund 3+ goals

12%

Molde 1+ goals

80%

Molde 2+ goals

47%

Molde 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

39%

Molde (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.72 · 28 matches

Molde away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.12 + Molde defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Molde attack 1.47 + Haugesund defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Haugesund scores more

29%

level

25%

Molde scores more

46%

Molde at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

A. Posiadała

Molde · G

8.5

Match Events

1'

K. Eriksen↳ O. Brynhildsen

42'

45+4'

61'

61'

64'

H. Stenevik← M. Løvik

64'

M. Enggård← M. Møller Dæhli

67'

S. Tounekti← P. Bizoza

72'

Sondre Liseth

77'

T. Nyhammer← S. Liseth

77'

A. Lúðvíksson← Bruno Leite

78'

Eirik Haugan

81'

Anton Logi Lúðvíksson

83'

F. IhlerPenalty

90'

Mathias Sauer

90+1'

N. Ødegård← O. Brynhildsen

90+3'

E. Haugan↳ M. Enggård

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundMolde

Overview

58%Possession42%

13Total Shots19

1.24Expected Goals (xG)3.29

7Corners11

9Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots19

7On Target5

1Off Target6

5Blocked8

8Inside Box16

5Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

511Total Passes366

414Accurate Passes286

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls12

4Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2

Eliteserien: Haugesund 0–3 Molde

Molde beat Haugesund 3-0 in Eliteserien on October 27, 2024.

Goals: K. Eriksen (1'), F. Ihler (83' pen), E. Haugan (90+3').

Haugesund controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 19.

The match was played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Haugesund.

Haugesund vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Haugesund 0–3 Molde