Molde vs Fredrikstad: Preview & Prediction

Molde

Preview

16:00

Fredrikstad

10/25/2026

Eliteserien · Round 12Aker Stadion

Big match

53%

Molde

model favours

53%23%24%

Molde score first in only 14% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

57%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Molde53%

×Draw23%

Fredrikstad24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldeExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.15

Molde

1.81

Fredrikstad

1.15

Molde creates 57% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 34 away

1.97

creates per match

1.11

1.18

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Molde

1.97

Fredrikstad

1.11

allows per match

Molde

1.18

Fredrikstad

1.66

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Molde+0.24scores more

Fredrikstad-0.05on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Molde or draw

76%

Molde or Fredrikstad

77%

Draw or Fredrikstad

47%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+

29%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals

84%

Molde 2+ goals

54%

Molde 3+ goals

27%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

68%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

32%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)

69%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.66 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 1.97 + Fredrikstad defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.81

Fredrikstad attack 1.11 + Molde defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Molde scores more

53%

level

23%

Fredrikstad scores more

24%

Molde at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Molde have scored in 11 games running
Fredrikstad score first in only 24% of matches
Both teams score in 79% of Molde’s matches
71% of Molde’s matches go over 2.5 goals
71% of Fredrikstad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Fredrikstad win just 17% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)