Molde 1–2 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Molde

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Fredrikstad

F. Gulbrandsen 90'

O. Ohlenschlaeger 45'

S. Molde 28'

9/13/2025

Eliteserien · Round 21Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Molde52%

×Draw23%

Fredrikstad25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldeExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.17

Molde

1.81

Fredrikstad

1.17

Molde creates 55% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

2.02

creates per match

1.13

1.22

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Molde

2.02

Fredrikstad

1.13

allows per match

Molde

1.22

Fredrikstad

1.61

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Molde+0.28scores more

Fredrikstad-0.04on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Molde or draw

75%

Molde or Fredrikstad

77%

Draw or Fredrikstad

48%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+

29%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals

84%

Molde 2+ goals

54%

Molde 3+ goals

27%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

69%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

33%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)

68%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 2.02 + Fredrikstad defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.81

Fredrikstad attack 1.13 + Molde defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Molde scores more

52%

level

23%

Fredrikstad scores more

25%

Molde at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

O. Ohlenschlaeger

Fredrikstad · M

8.9

Match Events

28'

S. Molde↳ O. Ohlenschlaeger

35'

Eirik Haugan

45+6'

Jalal Abdullai

45+5'

Daniel EidPenalty confirmed

45+3'

Sondre SørløkkPenalty cancelled

45'

O. Ohlenschlaeger

46'

F. Gulbrandsen← J. Abdullai

46'

D. Daga← J. Christensen

59'

61'

63'

71'

71'

H. Stenevik← M. Linnes

72'

J. Bjartalid← O. Ohlenschlaeger

82'

S. Kvile← S. Owusu

82'

R. R. Shein← H. Skogvold

85'

G. Nyheim← M. Eikrem

90+5'

Daniel Eid

90'

F. Gulbrandsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoldeFredrikstad

Overview

67%Possession33%

30Total Shots11

2.46Expected Goals (xG)2.59

14Corners2

13Fouls9

Shots

30Total Shots11

7On Target5

12Off Target2

11Blocked4

18Inside Box6

12Outside Box5

Passing

67%Possession33%

583Total Passes297

499Accurate Passes216

86%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Eliteserien: Molde 1–2 Fredrikstad

Fredrikstad beat Molde 2-1 in Eliteserien on September 13, 2025.

Goals: S. Molde (28'), O. Ohlenschlaeger (45'), F. Gulbrandsen (90').

Molde controlled possession (67%) and registered 30 shots to 11.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.

Molde vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Molde 1–2 Fredrikstad