Fredrikstad 4–2 Molde: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Fredrikstad

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Molde

D. Daga 90' (OG)

O. Ohlenschlaeger 88', 85'

E. Haugan 81' (OG)

S. Rafn 63' (OG)

E. Hestad 4'

7/12/2025

Eliteserien · Round 13Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Fredrikstad41%

×Draw25%

Molde34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.34

Fredrikstad

1.49

Molde

1.34

Fredrikstad creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 29 away

1.60

creates per match

1.35

1.33

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.60

Molde

1.35

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.33

Molde

1.38

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less

Molde-0.04on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

66%

Fredrikstad or Molde

75%

Draw or Molde

59%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

20%

Molde wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

77%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

44%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

19%

Molde 1+ goals

74%

Molde 2+ goals

39%

Molde 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

54%

Molde (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Molde away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Molde defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.49

Molde attack 1.35 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

41%

level

25%

Molde scores more

34%

Fredrikstad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

O. Ohlenschlaeger

Fredrikstad · F

9.2

Match Events

4'

9'

44'

46'

58'

S. Sorlokk← R. R. Shein

58'

H. Skogvold← L. Owusu

61'

V. Berisha← F. Gulbrandsen

61'

H. Stenevik← E. Hestad

63'

S. RafnOwn goal

65'

Simen RafnGoal confirmed

71'

J. Bjartalid← E. Holten

77'

D. Daga← M. Linnes

81'

E. HauganOwn goal

85'

Samukelo Kabini

85'

O. Ohlenschlaeger

88'

O. Ohlenschlaeger↳ S. Sorlokk

89'

M. Bjornbak← C. Oyvann

90+8'

Eirik Haugan

90+2'

B. Skaret← D. Eid

90'

D. DagaOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FredrikstadMolde

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots11

1.61Expected Goals (xG)1.02

7Corners4

5Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots11

6On Target6

2Off Target3

5Blocked2

11Inside Box6

2Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

350Total Passes492

276Accurate Passes420

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Fredrikstad vs Molde

Fredrikstad beat Molde 4-2 in Eliteserien on July 12, 2025.

Goals: E. Hestad (4'), S. Rafn (63' o.g.), E. Haugan (81' o.g.), O. Ohlenschlaeger (85', 88'), D. Daga (90' o.g.).

Molde controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.

Fredrikstad vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fredrikstad vs Molde