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Molde vs Dundalk — UEFA Europa League 2026

Molde
Molde
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Dundalk
Dundalk
M. Ellingsen 67'
O. Omoijuanfo 41'
M. Eikrem 30'
J. Flores 90+4'
12/3/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group B - 5Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Molde63%
×Draw20%
Dundalk17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde
2.21
Dundalk
1.06

Molde creates 108% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Molde
2.22
Dundalk
1.00

allows per match

Molde
1.11
Dundalk
2.20

finishing

Molde+0.00on par
Dundalk+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Dundalk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Molde or draw
83%
Molde or Dundalk
80%
Draw or Dundalk
37%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+
40%
Dundalk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals
89%
Molde 2+ goals
65%
Molde 3+ goals
38%
Dundalk 1+ goals
65%
Dundalk 2+ goals
29%
Dundalk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)
79%
Dundalk (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Dundalk away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 2.22 + Dundalk defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.21

Dundalk attack 1.00 + Molde defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Molde scores more
63%
level
20%
Dundalk scores more
17%

Molde at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. EikremMoldeMolde · M
10.0

Match Events

30'
M. Eikrem↳ B. Risa
41'
O. Omoijuanfo↳ B. Risa
52'
Stian Gregersen
61'
P. McEleney← G. Sloggett
61'
M. Duffy← N. Oduwa
61'
D. Cleary← A. Boyle
66'
Brian Gartland
67'
M. Ellingsen↳ M. Eikrem
68'
E. Hussain← S. Gregersen
68'
J. Mountney← C. Shields
73'
D. McMillan← D. Kelly
78'
T. Christensen← F. Aursnes
78'
L. James← M. Eikrem
79'
M. Moström← E. Hestad
84'
Birk Risa
86'
M. Bolly← O. Omoijuanfo
90'
Erling Knudtzon
90+4'
J. Flores↳ S. Gannon

Possession

75%Molde

Shots

26Molde

Pass accuracy

56%Molde

Statistics

MoldeDundalk
Overview
75%Possession25%
26Total Shots8
12Corners2
11Fouls4
Shots
26Total Shots8
12On Target2
5Off Target5
9Blocked1
20Inside Box2
6Outside Box6
Passing
75%Possession25%
730Total Passes245
682Accurate Passes181
93%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves8
Discipline
11Fouls4
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

UEFA Europa League: Molde 3–1 Dundalk

Molde beat Dundalk 3-1 in UEFA Europa League on December 3, 2020.

Goals: M. Eikrem (30'), O. Omoijuanfo (41'), M. Ellingsen (67'), J. Flores (90+4').

Molde controlled possession (75%) and registered 26 shots to 8.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.