Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dundalk vs Molde — UEFA Europa League 2026

Dundalk
Dundalk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Molde
Molde
S. Murray 35'
O. Omoijuanfo 72' (pen)
E. Hussain 62'
10/22/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group B - 1Tallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dundalk30%
×Draw22%
Molde48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundalk
1.55
Molde
1.99

Molde creates 28% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dundalk
1.60
Molde
1.38

allows per match

Dundalk
2.60
Molde
1.50

finishing

Dundalk+0.00on par
Molde+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundalk ↓

Molde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Dundalk or draw
52%
Dundalk or Molde
78%
Draw or Molde
70%

Winning margin

Dundalk wins by 2+
14%
Molde wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Dundalk 1+ goals
79%
Dundalk 2+ goals
46%
Dundalk 3+ goals
20%
Molde 1+ goals
86%
Molde 2+ goals
59%
Molde 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Dundalk (draw refunded)
39%
Molde (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundalk at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Molde away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundalk attack 1.60 + Molde defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Molde attack 1.38 + Dundalk defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dundalk scores more
30%
level
22%
Molde scores more
48%

Molde at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
J. MountneyDundalkDundalk · M
7.9

Match Events

20'
Stian Gregersen
35'
S. Murray↳ J. Mountney
62'
E. Hussain↳ M. Pedersen
64'
P. McEleney← G. Sloggett
69'
E. Knudtzon← M. Bolly
72'
O. OmoijuanfoPenalty
77'
C. Dummigan← D. Leahy
77'
D. McMillan← S. Gannon
77'
A. Boyle← S. Murray
80'
S. Čolović← M. Duffy
82'
M. Ellingsen← M. Eikrem
90+5'
O. Brynhildsen← O. Omoijuanfo

Possession

40%Dundalk

Shots

6Dundalk

Pass accuracy

47%Dundalk

Statistics

DundalkMolde
Overview
40%Possession60%
6Total Shots11
1Corners10
10Fouls16
Shots
6Total Shots11
1On Target2
3Off Target7
2Blocked2
2Inside Box5
4Outside Box6
Passing
40%Possession60%
373Total Passes549
268Accurate Passes447
72%Pass Accuracy81%
Discipline
10Fouls16
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides6

Dundalk 1 – 2 Molde

Molde beat Dundalk 2-1 in UEFA Europa League on October 22, 2020.

Goals: S. Murray (35'), E. Hussain (62'), O. Omoijuanfo (72' pen).

Molde controlled possession (60%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Tallaght Stadium in Dublin.