Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Molde vs Bryne — Eliteserien 2026

Molde
Molde
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bryne
Bryne
C. Zady 74'
F. Gulbrandsen 60'
8/3/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 16Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Molde56%
×Draw23%
Bryne21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde
1.86
Bryne
1.04

Molde creates 79% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 11 away

creates per match

Molde
1.97
Bryne
0.91

allows per match

Molde
1.18
Bryne
1.76

finishing

Molde+0.24scores more
Bryne+0.09on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Bryne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Molde or draw
79%
Molde or Bryne
77%
Draw or Bryne
44%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+
32%
Bryne wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals
84%
Molde 2+ goals
55%
Molde 3+ goals
28%
Bryne 1+ goals
65%
Bryne 2+ goals
28%
Bryne 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)
73%
Bryne (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Bryne away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.76 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 1.97 + Bryne defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.86

Bryne attack 0.91 + Molde defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Molde scores more
56%
level
23%
Bryne scores more
21%

Molde at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. EikremMoldeMolde · M
8.9

Match Events

23'
Sondre Milian Granaas
46'
M. Eikrem← S. Granaas
46'
D. Gaye← L. Qvigstad
60'
F. Gulbrandsen↳ M. Eikrem
69'
J. Abdullai← F. Gulbrandsen
69'
O. Spiten-Nysaeter← E. Hestad
73'
J. Tveita← K. Haland
74'
C. Zady↳ M. Eikrem
77'
M. Kaasa← C. Zady
83'
M. Thornes← N. Strunck
83'
R. Undheim← D. Moreira
87'
H. Stenevik← M. Linnes
89'
Jalal Abdullai

Possession

67%Molde

Shots

17Molde

Pass accuracy

53%Molde

Statistics

MoldeBryne
Overview
67%Possession33%
17Total Shots8
1.86Expected Goals (xG)0.41
13Corners2
9Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots8
6On Target2
5Off Target4
6Blocked2
12Inside Box5
5Outside Box3
Passing
67%Possession33%
685Total Passes339
587Accurate Passes254
86%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls12
2Yellow Cards0
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Molde vs Bryne

Molde beat Bryne 2-0 in Eliteserien on August 3, 2025.

Goals: F. Gulbrandsen (60'), C. Zady (74').

Molde controlled possession (67%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.