Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bryne vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Bryne
Bryne
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Molde
Molde
E. Breivik 39', 18'
K. Eriksen 37'
5/11/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 6Bryne Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Bryne41%
×Draw25%
Molde34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bryne
1.53
Molde
1.36

Bryne creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bryne
1.66
Molde
1.39

allows per match

Bryne
1.33
Molde
1.40

finishing

Bryne-0.28scores less
Molde-0.02on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bryne ↓

Molde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bryne or draw
66%
Bryne or Molde
75%
Draw or Molde
59%

Winning margin

Bryne wins by 2+
20%
Molde wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bryne 1+ goals
78%
Bryne 2+ goals
45%
Bryne 3+ goals
20%
Molde 1+ goals
74%
Molde 2+ goals
39%
Molde 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bryne (draw refunded)
55%
Molde (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bryne at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

Molde away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bryne attack 1.66 + Molde defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Molde attack 1.39 + Bryne defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bryne scores more
41%
level
25%
Molde scores more
34%

Bryne at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bryne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
K. HaugenMoldeMolde · D
8.3

Match Events

7'
H. Larsen← J. Tveita
18'
E. Breivik↳ S. Granaas
36'
S. Norheim← J. Haahr
37'
K. Eriksen↳ M. Linnes
39'
E. Breivik↳ E. Haugan
46'
L. Gorlich← N. Strunck
59'
Axel Kryger
61'
Heine Asen Larsen
67'
S. Kabini← S. Granaas
68'
M. Thornes← E. Saunes
68'
L. Qvigstad← D. Moreira
71'
Emil Breivik
83'
V. Lund← K. Haugen
90+3'
M. Mork← M. Eikrem
90+3'
I. F. Gosik← E. Breivik
90+3'
F. Ndayizeye← M. Linnes

Possession

47%Bryne

Shots

9Bryne

Pass accuracy

49%Bryne

Statistics

BryneMolde
Overview
47%Possession53%
9Total Shots13
1.56Expected Goals (xG)1.29
4Corners3
9Fouls8
Shots
9Total Shots13
1On Target5
3Off Target5
5Blocked3
4Inside Box11
5Outside Box2
Passing
47%Possession53%
452Total Passes503
333Accurate Passes380
74%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
9Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Bryne vs Molde

Molde beat Bryne 3-0 in Eliteserien on May 11, 2025.

Goals: E. Breivik (18', 39'), K. Eriksen (37').

Molde controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Bryne Stadion in Bryne.