Molde U19 1–0 Hibernian U19: Result & Stats

Molde U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hibernian U19

J. Bakke 68'

9/14/2022

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundAker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Molde U1940%

×Draw26%

Hibernian U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molde U19Expected goals in this matchHibernian U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.25

Molde U19

1.38

Hibernian U19

1.25

Molde U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.75

creates per match

0.50

2.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Molde U19

1.75

Hibernian U19

0.50

allows per match

Molde U19

2.00

Hibernian U19

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molde U19+0.00on par

Hibernian U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde U19 ↓

Hibernian U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Molde U19 or draw

66%

Molde U19 or Hibernian U19

74%

Draw or Hibernian U19

60%

Winning margin

Molde U19 wins by 2+

19%

Hibernian U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Molde U19 1+ goals

75%

Molde U19 2+ goals

40%

Molde U19 3+ goals

16%

Hibernian U19 1+ goals

71%

Hibernian U19 2+ goals

36%

Hibernian U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Molde U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Hibernian U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde U19 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Hibernian U19 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde U19 attack 1.75 + Hibernian U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Hibernian U19 attack 0.50 + Molde U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Molde U19 scores more

40%

level

26%

Hibernian U19 scores more

34%

Molde U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Molde U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

53'

57'

57'

60'

65'

G. Kjølstad Nyheim← M. Tomren Solheim

65'

F. Aleksander Nyheim← M. Tornes

68'

J. Bakke

69'

J. Landers← J. McCullock

74'

J. MacIntyre

82'

A. Khan← J. OConnor

87'

K. Megwa

Molde

Hibernian

1

Johnson

4

Blaney

11

MacIntyre

2

▼

5

3

6

8

7

10

9

▼

34

3

4

23

28

⚽

33

7

10

9

11

▼

Tornes

25

▼

Solheim

Manager: D. Hestad

65'▲G. Kjølstad Nyheim←▼M. Tomren Solheim

65'▲F. Aleksander Nyheim←▼M. Tornes

Molde U19 substitutes

8Nyheim21Nyheim1Bygland17Tjåland18Solbakken19Løvik20Silseth

Manager: S. Kean

69'▲J. Landers←▼J. McCullock

82'▲A. Khan←▼J. OConnor

Hibernian U19 substitutes

14Landers15Khan17Mckenzie13Owens16Holden12McAllister18Waugh