Hibernian U19 2–1 Molde U19: Result & Stats

Hibernian U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Molde U19

Malek Zaid 64'

J. Blaney 12'

M. Tornes 85'

10/5/2022

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundEaster Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hibernian U1980%

×Draw12%

Molde U198%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hibernian U19Expected goals in this matchMolde U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.15

0.90

Hibernian U19

3.15

Molde U19

0.90

Hibernian U19 creates 250% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.80

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

4.50

creates per match

Hibernian U19

1.80

Molde U19

1.00

allows per match

Hibernian U19

0.80

Molde U19

4.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hibernian U19+0.00on par

Molde U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hibernian U19 ↓

Molde U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Hibernian U19 or draw

92%

Hibernian U19 or Molde U19

88%

Draw or Molde U19

20%

Winning margin

Hibernian U19 wins by 2+

62%

Molde U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Hibernian U19 1+ goals

96%

Hibernian U19 2+ goals

81%

Hibernian U19 3+ goals

59%

Molde U19 1+ goals

59%

Molde U19 2+ goals

23%

Molde U19 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Hibernian U19 (draw refunded)

91%

Molde U19 (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hibernian U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Molde U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hibernian U19 attack 1.80 + Molde U19 defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.15

Molde U19 attack 1.00 + Hibernian U19 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Hibernian U19 scores more

80%

level

12%

Molde U19 scores more

8%

Hibernian U19 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Hibernian U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

J. Blaney

29'

M. Zaid

30'

N. Skuseth

46'

M. Tomren Solheim← A. Solbakken

64'

Malek Zaid

75'

F. Aleksander Nyheim← F. Heggdal Kristoffersen

77'

R. Molotnikov← Malek Zaid

79'

A. Tjåland← J. Myklebust

82'

O. MacIntyre

85'

M. Tornes

87'

A. Khan← J. McCullock

87'

J. Landers← J. OConnor

90+4'

O. Hastie

90+3'

K. Bygland← P. Hoel Lervik

Hibernian

Molde

34

▼

Lervik

3

Børset

4

Skuseth

5

▼

23

28

33

9

▼

Myklebust

18

▼

Solbakken

11

⚽

Tornes

8

Nyheim

1

Johnson

5

⚽

Blaney

3

MacIntyre

2

▼

4

11

8

6

7

9

▼

O'Connor

10

⚽

▼

Zaid

Manager: S. Kean

77'▲R. Molotnikov←▼Malek Zaid

87'▲A. Khan←▼J. McCullock

87'▲J. Landers←▼J. OConnor

Hibernian U19 substitutes

12Molotnikov15Khan16Landers13Owens17Holden14McAllister18Waugh

Manager: D. Hestad

46'▲M. Tomren Solheim←▼A. Solbakken

75'▲F. Aleksander Nyheim←▼F. Heggdal Kristoffersen

79'▲A. Tjåland←▼J. Myklebust

90+3'▲K. Bygland←▼P. Hoel Lervik

Molde U19 substitutes

25Solheim21Nyheim17Tjåland1Bygland16Myklebust19Løvik20Silseth

Match Recap: Hibernian U19 vs Molde U19

Hibernian U19 beat Molde U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 5, 2022.

Goals: J. Blaney (12'), Malek Zaid (64'), M. Tornes (85').

The match was played at Easter Road Stadium in Edinburgh.

Hibernian U19 vs Molde U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hibernian U19 vs Molde U19